Don Schunk, research economist at Coastal Carolina University, predicts just slight growth in accommodations and admissions tax revenues - key indicators of tourism - because gas prices are rising and Myrtle Beach has lost tourist attractions.

• In his first quarterly forecast for the Grand Strand, Schunk said building permits will continue to fall from last year’s pace throughout this year, while retail sales will continue to increase.

• The Strand’s unemployment is low and its job-growth rate is the best in the state, he said.

The report, released Wednesday, was the first in a succession of quarterly forecasts, which will be expanded to include more tourism indicators.

Some forecast highlights:

• Accommodations tax revenues for the Strand will rise by 2 percent in the second quarter from last year and increase 3 percent in the third quarter. Admissions tax revenues will be up 0.7 percent from last year in the second quarter and 1 percent in the third quarter.

• Airport deplanements, the number of passengers flying into Myrtle Beach, will rise 10 percent in the second quarter and 2.7 percent in the third quarter.

• Retail sales are forecast to grow this summer by 4.5 percent in the second quarter and 6 percent in the third quarter in Horry County. Sales will drop 0.5 percent in Georgetown County for the second quarter, but increase by 3.6 percent in the third quarter.

• Single-family housing permits will drop 38 percent to 1,209 in the second quarter from 1,960 last year. The third quarter will see a 29 percent drop.

But looking back to 2000, Schunk says today’s single-family permit levels are right where they should be if the area had not seen the real estate boom it did between 2004 and 2006.

• “We’re about 140 percent ahead of 2000 levels, so we’re where we should be if we didn’t have the tremendous boom time,” he said.

• In the long run, he expects single-family permits to hold steady on the Strand, while national economists are predicting a drop nationally.

• That’s because there is still a lot of natural demand for housing in the economy due to population increases, Schunk said.

Multifamily permits dropped 60 percent in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2006, to 766 from 1,916 last year. Schunk expects a continued decline, but not as drastic.

• Permits will drop 12 percent in the second quarter from the year before and 17 percent in the third quarter.

• The weak housing market has been affected by higher interest rates, stronger stock market performance, higher insurance rates and tighter credit standards, Schunk said.

Source: Jenny Burns - The Sun News, Myrtle Beach, SC