Strand forecast to thrive in 2007

Al Parish, Economist, Charleston Southern University

Summary: Gas prices will fall 10 to 15 cents per gallon, retail sales will continue to climb and commercial construction will take off as investors shy away from residential and pump their dollars into an arena that promises stronger growth.

In a wide-ranging presentation Thursday, Charleston Southern University economist Al Parish predicted mostly good things ahead for the economies of Horry, Georgetown and Williamsburg counties.

Indeed, the Grand Strand will continue to outperform the lackluster United States economy, thanks in part to its allure to retirees, Parish predicted.

• “The Grand Strand community is still growing,” Parish said. “It’s still a popular destination for retirees.”

• South Carolina is not only continuing to draw retirees from Florida, the Northeast and upper Midwest, new residents are coming from Northern California, Oregon and Washington, he said.

• Those retirees will add to the area’s permanent work force, draw more retailers and buy more permanent homes.

Parish’s forecast for 2007 and 2008 by category:

Tourism: Average daily room rates will increase 4 percent to $79 a night in 2007 and to $84 a night in 2008. The occupancy rate will increase 1 percent to average 58 percent for both years. The number of room nights sold will increase to 6.61 million in 2007 and 6.65 million in 2008. This year, Horry County’s total is projected to reach 6.58 million.

Construction: Permit valuation will more than double to $285 million in 2007 and jump to $297 million in 2008, based on the Hard Rock theme park in Horry County.

• “Investor money not only in the Grand Strand, but in the United States, is beginning to flow from housing to commercial ventures,” Parish said.

• Steel prices should begin to fall as demand drops because of slowing growth in China and India. “There’s plenty of steel and rebar and that’s good news, especially if you are a builder,” he added.

Labor: Unemployment should average 6.5 percent for 2007 and 2008. It will be 5.4 percent in 2007 and 5.3 percent in 2008 in Horry County. In Georgetown County, the unemployment rate will be 8.4 percent in 2007 and 8.2 percent in 2008.

Retail: Retail sales in Georgetown County will reach $1.56 billion in 2007 and $1.68 billion in 2008. It was projected to reach $1.44 billion this year. In Horry County, retail sales will increase to $10 billion in 2007 and $10.9 billion in 2008.

Transportation: The Port of Georgetown is estimated to handle 1.12 million tons of cargo in 2007, 1.175 million tons in 2008. Myrtle Beach International Airport should see traffic increase 4 percent in 2007 to 1.48 million passengers and to 1.54 million in 2008. The airport’s biggest problem, said Parish, is its capacity.

• Over the past year, Myrtle Beach’s airport has gotten a boost from Charleston residents looking for cheaper airfare. “They can save from one third to three quarters of the fare out of Charleston,” Parish said.

Golf: The area will continue to see a few golf courses sold for development, but will remain a top destination for golfers.

• “This area is very popular, even as far away as Japan,” Parish said. “It’s an international destination in that regard,” he said.

Gas prices: Gas prices are highest in South Carolina in Myrtle Beach and the lowest prices are in Georgetown. “If it’s $2.25 a gallon in Myrtle Beach, it’s $1.95 in Georgetown,” Parish said. “If you’re down that way, fill up.”

Source: Garrison Wells, The Sun News, Myrtle Beach